Soil–vegetation–atmosphere interaction over a hilly forest in the southern Huaihe River Basin: Long-term field experiment and preliminary analysis of basic observations 淮河流域南部丘陵森林地区土壤-植被-大气相互作用:长期野外试验观测的初步分析          下载免费PDF全文

《大气和海洋科学快报》2021,14(1):100006

To improve the understanding of the CO₂ exchange and the cycling of energy and water between the land surface and atmosphere over a typical hilly forest in southeastern China, a long-term field experimental observatory was established in Huainan, Anhui Province. Here, the authors briefly describe the three parts of ongoing research activities: the environmental monitoring at the site, the meteorological observations on a high tower, and particularly the intensive measurement of soil–vegetation–atmosphere interaction on a lower tower. Specifically, the diurnal variation of basic meteorological variables on a typical clear day (13 July 2018), and their temporal variation in the first three months of the low tower's operation (4 June to 31 August 2018), and in combination with simultaneous data from the high tower, are analyzed. Results show that the data demonstrate reasonable variabilities, and the variables exhibit significant diurnal variation, characteristics of summer values, and considerable differences in summer months. The daily and monthly average albedos above the forest canopy were both 0.13. The daily average soil CO₂ concentration was 1726 and 4481 ppm at 2 and 10 cm, respectively. The soil CO₂ concentration changed with soil volumetric moisture contents, but showed a weak correlation with soil temperature in summer 2018. As the observatory continues to run and data continue to be collated, further investigation of the long-term variation of monsoon characteristics should be performed in the future. The experiment is useful in ecosystem and atmosphere interaction research, as well as for the development and evaluation of climate models, in the transitional climate zone of the Huaihe River basin.摘要本文简要介绍了包括三部分观测的安徽淮南长期野外试验观测站, 特别是土壤-植被-大气的集中观测, 对小塔运行前三个月 (2018年6月至8月) 的数据, 并结合同一时段大塔获得的数据, 进行了初步分析.结果表明这些资料有合理的变化特征, 日变化和夏季值特征显著, 各月份间气象变化有明显差异.土壤水分和温度受降雨影响, 在不同的下垫面条件下表现出不同的变化.土壤CO₂日平均浓度在2 cm和10 cm处分别为1726和4481 ppm.2018年夏季土壤CO₂浓度随土壤体积含水量的变化而变化, 但与土壤温度呈弱相关.  相似文献   

IPCC AR6解读：全球和区域海平面变化的监测和预估     

张通  俞永强  效存德  华莉娟  闫展 《气候变化研究进展》2022,18(1):12-18

IPCC第六次评估报告第一工作组报告第九章综合评估了与海平面相关的最新监测和数值模拟结果,指出目前（2006—2018年）的海平面上升速率处于加速状态（3.7 mm/a),并会在未来持续上升,且呈现不可逆的趋势。其中低排放情景（SSP1-1.9）和高排放情景（SSP5-8.5）下,到2050年,预估全球平均海平面（GMSL）分别上升0.15~0.23 m和0.20~0.30 m;到2100年,预估GMSL分别上升0.28~0.55 m和0.63~1.02 m。南极冰盖不稳定性是影响未来海平面上升预估的最大不确定性来源之一。区域海平面变化是影响沿海极端静水位的重要因素。  相似文献   

模式内部变率引起的1.5℃和2℃升温阈值出现时间模拟的不确定性研究     

季涤非  刘利  李立娟  孙超  于馨竹  李锐喆  张诚  王斌 《气候变化研究进展》2019,15(4):343-351

模式内部变率是模拟结果不确定性的重要来源,然而它对于1.5℃和2℃升温阈值出现时间不确定性的影响尚不清楚。因此,基于耦合模式比较计划第五阶段(CMIP5)的多模式数据研究了模式内部变率对1.5℃和2℃升温阈值出现时间不确定性的影响以及对未来排放情景的敏感性。结果表明,模式内部变率对升温阈值出现时间模拟的影响与外强迫的影响相当,单个模式内部不同成员达到全球平均1.5℃或2℃增温的年份相差2~12年;其影响具有明显的空间差异,影响极大值出现在欧亚大陆以北洋面、白令海峡周围区域、北美东北部及其与格陵兰岛之间的海域、南半球高纬地区等;低排放情景下模式内部变率的影响大于高排放情景。  相似文献   

基于NCEP FNL资料的山西岢岚地区雨雪天气诊断可信度分析     

程胡华  王益柏  闻斌  武帅  智茂林  赵亮 《气象与环境学报》2019,35(2):23-31

基于山西岢岚地区2005—2014年共1218个雨雪天气日的NCEP FNL资料(1°×1°)与探空资料,采用偏差、绝对差、相关系数和偏差区间占有率的统计方法,对常规物理量(温度、相对湿度、纬向风和经向风)和诊断物理量(T_800-500、T_d800和TT_d700)进行统计分析。结果表明:常规物理量中的温度平均偏差值和绝对差值最小、相关系数值最大,分别为-0. 22℃、1. 02℃、0. 90,可信度最高;而相对湿度的平均偏差值和绝对差值最大、相关系数值最小,分别为12. 31%、19. 68%和0. 63,可信度最低;纬向风和经向风的可信度相差不大,略低于温度;诊断物理量T_800-500、T_d800和TT_d700的偏差值分别为-0. 08℃、1. 50℃和2. 79℃,绝对差值分别为1. 21℃、3. 33℃和4. 14℃,相关系数值分别为0. 95、0. 92和0. 74,偏差值为[-5,5]占总数百分比分别为98. 77%、80. 30%和75. 04%。即T_800-500可信度最高,TT_d700指数可信度最低。  相似文献   

Influence of Sea Surface Temperature on the Predictability of Idealized Tropical Cyclone Intensity     

钟权加  李建平  李舒文  王羱  丁瑞强  张立凤 《热带气象学报(英文版)》2021,27(4):355-367

The role of sea surface temperature (SST) forcing in the development and predictability of tropical cyclone (TC) intensity is examined using a large set of idealized numerical experiments in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The results indicate that the onset time of rapid intensification of TC gradually decreases, and the peak intensity of TC gradually increases, with the increased magnitude of SST. The predictability limits of the maximum 10 m wind speed (MWS) and minimum sea level pressure (MSLP) are ~72 and ~84 hours, respectively. Comparisons of the analyses of variance for different simulation time confirm that the MWS and MSLP have strong signal-to-noise ratios (SNR) from 0-72 hours and a marked decrease beyond 72 hours. For the horizontal and vertical structures of wind speed, noticeable decreases in the magnitude of SNR can be seen as the simulation time increases, similar to that of the SLP or perturbation pressure. These results indicate that the SST as an external forcing signal plays an important role in TC intensity for up to 72 hours, and it is significantly weakened if the simulation time exceeds the predictability limits of TC intensity.  相似文献   

Annual Frequency of Tropical Cyclones Directly Affecting Guangdong Province:Prediction Based on LSTM-FC     

胡娅敏  陈韵竹  何健  刘圣军  闫文杰  赵亮  汪明圣  李芷卉  王娟怀  董少柔  刘新儒 《热带气象学报(英文版)》2022,28(1):45-56

Tropical cyclone (TC) annual frequency forecasting is significant for disaster prevention and mitigation in Guangdong Province. Based on the NCEP-NCAR reanalysis and NOAA Extended Reconstructed global sea surface temperature (SST) V5 data in winter, the TC frequency climatic features and prediction models have been studied. During 1951-2019, 353 TCs directly affected Guangdong with an annual average of about 5.1. TCs have experienced an abrupt change from abundance to deficiency in the mid to late 1980 with a slightly decreasing trend and a normal distribution. 338 primary precursors are obtained from statistically significant correlation regions of SST, sea level pressure, 1000hPa air temperature, 850hPa specific humidity, 500hPa geopotential height and zonal wind shear in winter. Then those 338 primary factors are reduced into 19 independent predictors by principal component analysis (PCA). Furthermore, the Multiple Linear Regression (MLR), the Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) and the Long Short-term Memory Networks and Fully Connected Layers (LSTM-FC) models are constructed relying on the above 19 factors. For three different kinds of test sets from 2010 to 2019, 2011 to 2019 and 2010 to 2019, the root mean square errors (RMSEs) of MLR, GPR and LSTM-FC between prediction and observations fluctuate within the range of 1.05-2.45, 1.00-1.93 and 0.71-0.95 as well as the average absolute errors (AAEs) 0.88-1.0, 0.75-1.36 and 0.50-0.70, respectively. As for the 2010-2019 experiment, the mean deviations of the three model outputs from the observation are 0.89, 0.78 and 0.56, together with the average evaluation scores 82.22, 84.44 and 88.89, separately. The prediction skill comparisons unveil that LSTM-FC model has a better performance than MLR and GPR. In conclusion, the deep learning model of LSTM-FC may shed light on improving the accuracy of short-term climate prediction about TC frequency. The current research can provide experience on the development of deep learning in this field and help to achieve further progress of TC disaster prevention and mitigation in Guangdong Province.  相似文献   

Decreasing predictability as a precursor indicator for abrupt climate change     

He  Wenping  Xie  Xiaoqiang  Mei  Ying  Wan  Shiquan  Zhao  Shanshan 《Climate Dynamics》2021,56(11):3899-3908

Abrupt climate change has an important impact on sustainable economic and social development, as well as ecosystem. However, it is very difficult to predict abrupt climate changes because the climate system is a complex and nonlinear system. In the present paper, the nonlinear local Lyapunov exponent (NLLE) is proposed as a new early warning signal for an abrupt climate change. The performance of NLLE as an early warning signal is first verified by those simulated abrupt changes based on four folding models. That is, NLLE in all experiments showed an almost monotonous increasing trend as a dynamic system approached its tipping point. For a well-studied abrupt climate change in North Pacific in 1976/1977, it is also found that NLLE shows an almost monotonous increasing trend since 1970 which give up to 6 years warning before the abrupt climate change. The limit of the predictability for a nonlinear dynamic system can be quantitatively estimated by NLLE, and lager NLLE of the system means less predictability. Therefore, the decreasing predictability may be an effective precursor indicator for abrupt climate change.

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Interannual variability of the sea surface salinity and its related freshwater flux in the tropical Pacific: A comparison of CMIP5 and CMIP6          下载免费PDF全文

Hai Zhi  Yu Huang  Pengfei Lin  Shiwei Shi  Meng Dong 《大气和海洋科学快报》2022,15(4):100190

This paper assesses the interannual variabilities of simulated sea surface salinity (SSS) and freshwater flux (FWF) in the tropical Pacific from phases 5 and 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5 and CMIP6). The authors focus on comparing the simulated SSS and FWF responses to El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) from two generations of models developed by the same group. The results show that CMIP5 and CMIP6 models can perform well in simulating the spatial distributions of the SSS and FWF responses associated with ENSO, as well as their relationship. It is found that most CMIP6 models have improved in simulating the geographical distribution of the SSS and FWF interannual variability in the tropical Pacific compared to CMIP5 models. In particular, CMIP6 models have corrected the underestimation of the spatial relationship of the FWF and SSS variability with ENSO in the central-western Pacific. In addition, CMIP6 models outperform CMIP5 models in simulating the FWF interannual variability (spatial distribution and intensity) in the tropical Pacific. However, as a whole, CMIP6 models do not show improved skill scores for SSS interannual variability, which is due to their overestimation of the intensity in some models. Large uncertainties exist in simulating the interannual variability of SSS among CMIP5 and CMIP6 models and some improvements with respect to physical processes are needed.摘要通过比较CMIP5和CMIP6来自同一个单位两代模式模拟, 表明CMIP5和CMIP6均能较好地模拟出热带太平洋的海表盐度 (SSS) 和淡水通量 (FWF) 对ENSO响应的分布及其响应间的关系. 与CMIP5模式相比, 大部份CMIP6模式模拟的SSS和FWF年际变化分布均呈现改进, 特别是纠正了较低的中西太平洋SSS和FWF变化的空间关系. 但是, 整体上, CMIP6模式模拟的SSS年际变化技巧没有提高, 与SSS年际变率的强度被高估有关. CMIP5和CMIP6模式模拟SSS的年际变化还存在较大的不确定性, 在物理方面需要改进.  相似文献   

华北汛期降水长期变化规律研究新进展          下载免费PDF全文

刘海文  袁帅  杨朝虹  武凯军  朱玉祥  林一骅 《大气科学学报》2022,45(5):700-712

华北汛期降水的年代际减少,一直是气候学领域关心的重要课题之一。本文扼要回顾了华北汛期旱涝研究的最新代表性成果,主要包括华北汛期起讫的客观识别、华北汛期降水多时间尺度的变化特征、华北汛期降水变化与大气遥相关型的关系,以及华北汛期降水量增多趋势的停滞等。在此基础之上,归纳和总结了该领域需要继续深入研究的问题,如：华北汛期起讫时间的统一性;在华北汛期降水年代际变少的归因分析中,其年际振荡成分衰减的物理原因;华北汛期降水年代际变多趋势停滞的原因;华北汛期降水何时恢复增多等科学问题。  相似文献   

Erratum to: Understanding and building upon pioneering work of Nobel Prize in Physics 2021 laureates Syukuro Manabe and Klaus Hasselmann: From greenhouse effect to Earth system science and beyond     

Zhou  Tianjun  Zhang  Wenxia  Chen  Deliang  Zhang  Xuebin  Li  Chao  Zuo  Meng  Chen  Xiaolong 《中国科学:地球科学(英文版)》2022,65(7):1414-1414

Science China Earth Sciences -  相似文献